I think of the things you write about here virtually every time I am in a car. I am aware too that the “need for speed” is partly a herd phenomenon: I was taught while learning to drive highway buses that one should “harmonize” with the other traffic, which means going 20 km/h over the limit on most Ontario highways. It doesn’t take a study to see that not only do more people die as a result, but that the cost in terms of stress is enormous. The mental and social health consequences are incalculable. Think of the children shut out from parents’ attention while mom’s knuckles turn white on the steering wheel and you get the idea. And the supposed goal - of getting where you want to go quickly, is most often thwarted by so many others doing the same. The relief of ending the trip often is greater than the relief of arriving at the destination.
"As cars have gotten safer, they have gotten bigger and heavier and way more expensive."
All of the newer creature comforts now in cars aside, most cars over the years have become much smaller due to various govt regulations (like miles per gallon and emissions). And many of the reasons why cars are safer are also due to govt regulations.
TANSTAAFL - all those regulations have added up to thousands of USD dollars added to the price of a car.
Do you really think that your dream car, the Isetta, as it was manufactured then, could be sold either in America or Canada today? Taking a technique from zero based budgeting, start adding all of the stuff needed to make it road worthy today - and then add up the costs.
And what is the price of Mom, Dad, and the toddler shown in your picture in a head-on with a truck even of a vintage back then? No seat belts at all, no collapsible steering column, no crush zones (except for the entire car being one), and how dirty was that engine.
Not exactly a trophy car for your argument, Lloyd.
Unfortunately Doug Ford seems to share the same irrational, evidence-lacking beliefs of our current government in NZ, which is hell-bent on raising speed limits to improve productivity and efficiency. Oh, and because it's more "fun". Seriously. Personally, I just want to get where I'm going in one piece (and for my friends and family too).
I am convinced that the general population has also exited the pandemic with even less ability to drive safely than was apparent before. I was actually several hours away from home by highway when the pandemic became fully apparent and as I drove home at the end of that weekend I noted two significant changes - the highways were significantly emptier, and, there were a handful of drivers who were determined to take advantage of that relative emptiness and drive far faster than even the often normal 20 mph above the posted limit. I long ago abandoned any insistence at obeying the posted speed limits on the highways and instead try to drive with the majority neither being a serious impediment to traffic nor trying to flee from all of it by driving faster, but I am increasingly persuaded that what I'm seeing regularly on the roads means that self-driving cars can't really be any more dangerous than many of the human drivers now on the road.
"A low-energy civilization is invariably a slower civilization."
Ayup, you are correct, Lloyd. And one that modernity is being cast aside. The world actually has a great example for a "slow civilization" that has also undergone de-growth as well. Here's a picture next to a place that hasn't: https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/384846730658005501/
"great example for a "slow civilization" that has also undergone de-growth as well"
You can't use North Korea as an example of degrowth. It was functionally destroyed during WW2 and has never recovered in any meaningful way. We have never tried managed degrowth so there are no examples available. The closest you can get IRL and arguably it's still not a good example for reasons, would be Japan.
"And one that modernity is being cast aside."
Here is a better picture of a country undergoing managed degrowth
"When British Columbia raised the speed limit by 10km/hr in 2014, the number of fatal crashes doubled."
Well, that looked "off" so I decided to use your favorite AI, Perplexity, to dig deeper. You should have done so as well.
There is the oath in American courts "...the whole truth and nothing but the truth.." So two queries went in:
1) What was the number of fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2014?
Answer: "According to the data provided in the search results, there were 289 fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2014."
2) What was the number of fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2013?
Answer: In 2013, there were 269 fatal crashes in British Columbia. a 7.4% increase of fatal accidents on provincial highways. I assume that this fits your line as very few people go 70MPH on local city streets.
Asking Perplexity again: "The official Statistics Canada estimate, as reported in result , put Canada's population at 35,540,400 on July 1, 2014."
Zeroing in on British Columbia: "the population of British Columbia in 2014 was 4,712,691. This figure comes from the official British Columbia government data, which provides annual population estimates for the province from 1867 to 2023."
One ALWAYS must put things into context and perspective: in 2014, that a rate of 0.006% of the population of BC.
For completeness, I repeated the first two queries but for 2023 - 331 fatal incident deaths in BC with a population of 5.52 million.
I leave the rest of the example in comparisons as an exercise to the readers
"...civilization has basically been a quest for higher energy use."
Hardly. I don't know a soul that has ever told me "I'M GONNA USE LOTS OF ENERGY TODAY!!!!".
Sorry, Lloyd, you are WAY off base with that line. What people want isn't just higher energy usage, they want a better standard of living. Period. And that requires energy. From the time of dung fires to wax candles to coal to whale oil and kerosene lamps to electricity and gas, and finally to nukes, people will choose better methods that will give themselves (and their families) an easier and more modern lifestyle. Period.
Citroen Ami...
The Isetta was my first car and learned to drive in it!
I think of the things you write about here virtually every time I am in a car. I am aware too that the “need for speed” is partly a herd phenomenon: I was taught while learning to drive highway buses that one should “harmonize” with the other traffic, which means going 20 km/h over the limit on most Ontario highways. It doesn’t take a study to see that not only do more people die as a result, but that the cost in terms of stress is enormous. The mental and social health consequences are incalculable. Think of the children shut out from parents’ attention while mom’s knuckles turn white on the steering wheel and you get the idea. And the supposed goal - of getting where you want to go quickly, is most often thwarted by so many others doing the same. The relief of ending the trip often is greater than the relief of arriving at the destination.
"As cars have gotten safer, they have gotten bigger and heavier and way more expensive."
All of the newer creature comforts now in cars aside, most cars over the years have become much smaller due to various govt regulations (like miles per gallon and emissions). And many of the reasons why cars are safer are also due to govt regulations.
TANSTAAFL - all those regulations have added up to thousands of USD dollars added to the price of a car.
Do you really think that your dream car, the Isetta, as it was manufactured then, could be sold either in America or Canada today? Taking a technique from zero based budgeting, start adding all of the stuff needed to make it road worthy today - and then add up the costs.
And what is the price of Mom, Dad, and the toddler shown in your picture in a head-on with a truck even of a vintage back then? No seat belts at all, no collapsible steering column, no crush zones (except for the entire car being one), and how dirty was that engine.
Not exactly a trophy car for your argument, Lloyd.
Unfortunately Doug Ford seems to share the same irrational, evidence-lacking beliefs of our current government in NZ, which is hell-bent on raising speed limits to improve productivity and efficiency. Oh, and because it's more "fun". Seriously. Personally, I just want to get where I'm going in one piece (and for my friends and family too).
I am convinced that the general population has also exited the pandemic with even less ability to drive safely than was apparent before. I was actually several hours away from home by highway when the pandemic became fully apparent and as I drove home at the end of that weekend I noted two significant changes - the highways were significantly emptier, and, there were a handful of drivers who were determined to take advantage of that relative emptiness and drive far faster than even the often normal 20 mph above the posted limit. I long ago abandoned any insistence at obeying the posted speed limits on the highways and instead try to drive with the majority neither being a serious impediment to traffic nor trying to flee from all of it by driving faster, but I am increasingly persuaded that what I'm seeing regularly on the roads means that self-driving cars can't really be any more dangerous than many of the human drivers now on the road.
"A low-energy civilization is invariably a slower civilization."
Ayup, you are correct, Lloyd. And one that modernity is being cast aside. The world actually has a great example for a "slow civilization" that has also undergone de-growth as well. Here's a picture next to a place that hasn't: https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/384846730658005501/
Which would one prefer?
"great example for a "slow civilization" that has also undergone de-growth as well"
You can't use North Korea as an example of degrowth. It was functionally destroyed during WW2 and has never recovered in any meaningful way. We have never tried managed degrowth so there are no examples available. The closest you can get IRL and arguably it's still not a good example for reasons, would be Japan.
"And one that modernity is being cast aside."
Here is a better picture of a country undergoing managed degrowth
https://www.sciencephoto.com/media/108264/view/japan-at-night-satellite-image
You are quite correct in that we need power to run our civilization and our toys etc.
USA Average power consumption (all numbers from P.AI) 11,695.83 kWh per year
European:5,461.91 kWh per
Japan: 7,327 kWh/year - steady for the last 22 years
Yet using the HDI USA is rated 13 and Japan is rated 14 with numerous Europeans ahead of USA.
Which would suggest that we can reduce our power consumptions and still have our comforts and toys.
"When British Columbia raised the speed limit by 10km/hr in 2014, the number of fatal crashes doubled."
Well, that looked "off" so I decided to use your favorite AI, Perplexity, to dig deeper. You should have done so as well.
There is the oath in American courts "...the whole truth and nothing but the truth.." So two queries went in:
1) What was the number of fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2014?
Answer: "According to the data provided in the search results, there were 289 fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2014."
2) What was the number of fatal crashes in British Columbia in 2013?
Answer: In 2013, there were 269 fatal crashes in British Columbia. a 7.4% increase of fatal accidents on provincial highways. I assume that this fits your line as very few people go 70MPH on local city streets.
Perplexity used this as its reference: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/driving-and-transportation/driving/roadsafetybc/data/mv-fatal-victims2005-2014.pdf
Asking Perplexity again: "The official Statistics Canada estimate, as reported in result , put Canada's population at 35,540,400 on July 1, 2014."
Zeroing in on British Columbia: "the population of British Columbia in 2014 was 4,712,691. This figure comes from the official British Columbia government data, which provides annual population estimates for the province from 1867 to 2023."
One ALWAYS must put things into context and perspective: in 2014, that a rate of 0.006% of the population of BC.
For completeness, I repeated the first two queries but for 2023 - 331 fatal incident deaths in BC with a population of 5.52 million.
I leave the rest of the example in comparisons as an exercise to the readers
Not a coubling.
not double. Sorry, dyslexia of the fingertips.
correlation does not imply causation:
"...civilization has basically been a quest for higher energy use."
Hardly. I don't know a soul that has ever told me "I'M GONNA USE LOTS OF ENERGY TODAY!!!!".
Sorry, Lloyd, you are WAY off base with that line. What people want isn't just higher energy usage, they want a better standard of living. Period. And that requires energy. From the time of dung fires to wax candles to coal to whale oil and kerosene lamps to electricity and gas, and finally to nukes, people will choose better methods that will give themselves (and their families) an easier and more modern lifestyle. Period.
Your bias certainly showed.