Another survey confirms that boomers are clueless

They apparently think that they can drive to their suburban single family house forever.

AARP has released the results of its survey “2024 Home & Community Preferences Among Adults 18 and Older” and of course, it is illustrated with what looks like an AI version of an idyllic suburban community of culs-de-sac and single detached houses with three-car garages. Because that is apparently what everyone wants.

Reading it reminded me of a controversial and deleted post, “Study confirms that boomers are clueless,” which I wrote for the Mother Nature Network in 2016, where the consensus among the baby boomers surveyed was:

“Americans want a fuller life, but they don’t want to live where the amenities, the libraries and theaters and bookstores and where the other people are, which is in the city. They are worried about their health but don’t want to be where the hospitals and the doctors and the specialists are. They want peace of mind, but they still want 2,000 square feet of house in the middle of a lawn that has to be mowed, on a cul-de-sac where they can’t get transit. Basically they want what they have now, but on one floor.”

Eight years later, nothing has changed. The vast majority of adults over 50 (72%) want to stay in their own home forever. If they do move, 75% of them would consider downsizing to a smaller single-family home.

Most (73%) want to stay in their own community, but if they move, the main reason is lowering the cost of living, followed by “feeling safer and more secure and has little or no crime.” Surprisingly, those are considerably higher than being close to family and friends or living in a walkable community.

The survey finds that adults 50-plus expect to make changes as they age, including bathroom changes and even anticipate the need for ramps and chair lifts. But there is no mention anywhere of the most significant and dramatic change in people’s lives as they age: the ability to drive.

There is no discussion of the “driving life expectancy”- the number of years Americans live after losing the ability to drive. According to the most quoted study by Daniel Foley in 2002, “Drivers aged 70 to 74 years had a driving life expectancy of approximately 11 years.” That’s 11 years of failing health in a single-family house in the suburbs, without a car, without family nearby, and without being in a walkable neighbourhood. Another more recent study puts the driving life expectancy at seven years for men, ten for women.

Everybody worries about ramps and interior mobility issues, yet they are far less of a problem than that blue line for household activity; it includes difficulty with shopping, money management, housework and driving. It’s crossing 60% at 80 and over. Nobody wants to talk about losing the car keys.

A 2020 study, Older Adults’ Expectations about Mortality, Driving Life and Years Left without Driving, confirms that people just don’t think it will happen to them, and they do not prepare to give up driving. When they have to, the effects can be severe:

“Those who engage in driving reduction and cessation experience not only mobility loss, but numerous adverse health outcomes, including higher prevalence of depression, decreased functional outcome, earlier admission into institutional care, and even mortality.”

And God forbid they should get on a bus:

“Throughout most of the U.S., most older drivers prefer to drive themselves or be transported in a personal vehicle, even when public transportation is available. As a result, driving is synonymous with personal transportation mobility, and driving cessation is associated with loss of independence combined with becoming a burden to family and friends.”

The study notes that men will likely have a driving life expectancy of seven years and women ten years. Seven to ten years of depression, adverse health outcomes, being a burden to family and friends, all because our society is so dependent on cars.

AARP apparently understands this, and the report has a section on “community considerations” where they make recommendations that seem to contradict their own survey.

Housing: Communities must expand housing opportunities by increasing the overall housing supply, creating new housing options, and ensuring availability of affordable housing for lower-income households and older adults on fixed incomes. These opportunities should feature accessible homes, accessory dwelling units (ADUs), multigenerational housing, and home sharing programs to support residents who want to stay in their homes and/or communities throughout their life.

Meanwhile, if anyone tries to build housing near the existing single-family homes, they go to public meetings and fight it. In Toronto, they fight corner stores. And only 4% of the people over 50 surveyed have any interest in living in a Continuing Care Community, defined as “a senior living option that provides seniors with the opportunity to “age in place,” or live in one location for as long as they need.”

AARP also gets that not everyone can drive.

Transportation: Communities need to ensure that residents can get around safely by providing safe sidewalks, streets, and roads. Additionally, communities should prepare to meet the emerging mobility needs of residents as they age by providing safe, accessible, and affordable alternatives to driving.

A lot of people got mad at me for calling baby boomers clueless, telling me that it was perfectly reasonable to want to stay in their homes and that autonomous cars and food delivery services would solve this. Perhaps, for a few rich people, they will. But in most cases, it is a matter of an unwillingness to accept the inevitable. As the study on expectations about driving concluded,

“Given the complexities associated with aging and the projected growth of older drivers in the future, it is important to help older adults prepare for a non-driving future. This preparation cannot occur unless they have realistic expectations about both their driving futures and their options as non-drivers.”

We have to stop being clueless about this.

We have 75 million North American baby boomers, almost all of which will not be able to drive at some point. We need accessible housing, and walkable communities with good sidewalks, corner stores, medical facilities and coffee shops within a reasonable distance. We need good safe accessible transit for when we have to go further. We all must prepare for a non-driving future. And as the AARP study shows, almost nobody is.