Do you believe that the culture that is Copenhagen can be mapped to ALL of North America? Too many people don't take that into account when attempting to change the lives of large populations without their buy-in.
Good for them - it works for them but do you really think that Copenhagen, in the abstract, really is a good "map" for ALL of North America? I think not - it doesn't apply here.
Adam is trying a one size fits all "solution" when I'm sure it isn't. Can it work in some places? Perhaps.
Certainly not all because a lot of the Cultures in the different areas of North America (heck, even within various parts of a large city in the US) don't match up at all.
So do that mapping from the other direction - what areas within North American can Copenhagen be mapped to in concrete terms (not in the abstract you presented)?
Just Toronto or, as Adam states, "ALL of North America"? The Netherlands is still a rather homogenous population - that can't be said taking in the totality of N. America.
It is rather doubtful that the "culture mapping" would be a failure.
That's a rather big statement. I'm curious - what is driving your assumption? In your opinion, who DO you need buy-in from to get that funding and what is your project plan to make it happen?
Especially at my exceeding low ball WAG of $130,000/cyclist (and I'm willing to entertain other estimates as, again, mine was just "back of the envelope")?
Blithely stating something doesn't make something happen. Are you judging that the Culture of the Province is ready to make such an expenditure?
Most Ontario voters want Doug Ford to destroy bike lanes, public healthcare and public education. Either that or they do not care about their lives in Ontario.
OK, let's look at the simple hurdles for your plan (data from Perplexity.AI, WAG (Wild Ass Guesses) from me):
Politics - Remember, the #1 job of any politician is to get re-elected.
Data - Ontario has 5 of Canada's biggest cities (Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, and Hamilton) with a combined population (city proper, not metropolitan) of 5,740,000 (14% of a total Canadian population of 40 million.
Data WAG based on Toronto (3,354 miles) - 25% of the roads would be converted to bike lanes yielding 838.5. Round up to 1000 just to make the math simpler. Times five is 5,000 miles total.
Data WAG - For protected bike lanes, the cost is $133,000 (USD) to $536,000 (USD) / mile. Let's use $300K to keep the math simpler.
CapEx - Total cost: 5,000 miles X $300,000 (USD) = $1,500,000,000. That's $261 per person in those cities to do this capital expense.
Data WAG - Assume a high estimate of 10% of that population, 57,400 either are or would be cyclists across each city (11,480). That a cost of $130,000 spent per cyclist.
Politics - The Premier has the Power to order these Cities (which are "mere creatures of a Province per the Canadian Constitution) in the Province to do what you want - convert roads to have bike lanes. It would like cause political chaos with LOTS of pushback as he was elected to REMOVE bike lanes (like it or not).
Result - IF he were to do that, you might get some of your bike lanes and the result you wanted in one of your other posts - replacing Doug Ford.
Reality Check - So NOW for the question - is this the value proposition that voters would accept to 1) put in the bike lanes, and 2) vote Doug Ford out for spending all that money for so few privileged people?
Data point AND Politics - Not factored in: what is the percentage of those cities' population that care about emissions no matter the personal cost to themselves vs those that say "er, no"? And how would that play in the political ramifications as well?
Politics - see above, Job #1. Do you think Ford is that stupid to get himself unelected over this given the cost / politics?
This is why I and others keep stressing "What's the COST of the ideas presented here? (secondarily, the palatability thereof to the entire population)". Then add in the Political ramifications of such costs. The problem is that hardly anyone here doesn't even bother to do this simple "back of an envelope" analysis.
And it is a simple analysis as I have other more pressing things to do but the next step would be to analyze the amount / cost / average MPG / emissions to an estimated "first order" lowering of each of those data points with a resultant dollar savings.
"If we want economic independence from the USA, we should build more bike lanes"
So, when it is all said and done, is the premise above, that putting in bike lanes be sufficient to REALLY move the needle towards economic independence from the USA, true or not? I think not.
However, I'll leave the second part of the problem domain, as noted above, as an exercise for the readers to prove me wrong. I'm always willing to learn something new.
You need not have put so much work into this. In this case, the bike lanes are installed and are being removed, so I am simply trying to make a case for preserving them.
"I am simply trying to make a case for preserving them"
Yes, you have made that case in past posts. That's fine but as we have discussed, it is a political domain issue.
However, in the title of this post, "If we want economic independence from the USA, we should build more bike lanes, not rip them out."
You made making an 'economic independence' supposition. I thought it to be rather interesting as it banded both the political and funding domains. As I said, I merely made a "back of the envelope" analysis that only took a few minutes (really, just a few) to see if it would really pan out to be more than a sliver. Again, without doing the backend (which WOULD take a lot of time), I WAG that it would not.
But the topic then morphed into how important that the "Culture of a Place" is also important and plays a significant role in such a project.
See? Connected breadcrumbs that show that a given problem has lots of forks in it.
Another thought: the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo (which happened 1 month before I got my driver's license) was an externally enforced and restricting event. What you are desiring is an internally enforced one - far different and I would say that it "doesn't map" one to the other.
That's not to say that Canada can't do that with but with your Finance Minister Freeland, running to supplant Trudeau, talking about setting up a nuclear alliance with Britain and France to deter the US, who knows what's next?
Not quite as stupid as today's Zelensky's meeting with Trump and JD (Zelensky certainly couldn't read the room - and on live TV to boot) - maybe.
But for all the talk I see by Provinces advertising on our TV about Kumbaya and how valuable they are to us, I thought her position in comparison...strange.
I’m using your insights to guide where I live in the future putting most of my efforts into living in a walkable area that allows me to meet my needs without a car as much as possible.
I wish Canada luck in mapping an independent future. No one should depend in any way on entities that interact through threats which the USA under Trump has done. I wish you luck in moving on from politics to sustainability it’s hard to think of anything but politics in these difficult times.
Appreciate use of USA vs incorrect America, the latter of which I have never used nor heard much until recently. Popular Canadian media even saying America now. Aren’t the terms used part of media org policy?
I want to apply Copenhagen’s lessons, to ALL of North America.
Do you believe that the culture that is Copenhagen can be mapped to ALL of North America? Too many people don't take that into account when attempting to change the lives of large populations without their buy-in.
Copenhagen is like 30% cycling, we don’t need buy-in from everyone.
"Copenhagen is like 30% cycling"
Good for them - it works for them but do you really think that Copenhagen, in the abstract, really is a good "map" for ALL of North America? I think not - it doesn't apply here.
Adam is trying a one size fits all "solution" when I'm sure it isn't. Can it work in some places? Perhaps.
Certainly not all because a lot of the Cultures in the different areas of North America (heck, even within various parts of a large city in the US) don't match up at all.
So do that mapping from the other direction - what areas within North American can Copenhagen be mapped to in concrete terms (not in the abstract you presented)?
I forgot to add - is your "we"?
Just Toronto or, as Adam states, "ALL of North America"? The Netherlands is still a rather homogenous population - that can't be said taking in the totality of N. America.
It is rather doubtful that the "culture mapping" would be a failure.
Rewrite (hit REPLY too soon):
It is rather doubtful that the "culture mapping" would be a success.
"we don’t need buy-in from everyone"
That's a rather big statement. I'm curious - what is driving your assumption? In your opinion, who DO you need buy-in from to get that funding and what is your project plan to make it happen?
Especially at my exceeding low ball WAG of $130,000/cyclist (and I'm willing to entertain other estimates as, again, mine was just "back of the envelope")?
Blithely stating something doesn't make something happen. Are you judging that the Culture of the Province is ready to make such an expenditure?
Most Ontario voters want Doug Ford to destroy bike lanes, public healthcare and public education. Either that or they do not care about their lives in Ontario.
OK, let's look at the simple hurdles for your plan (data from Perplexity.AI, WAG (Wild Ass Guesses) from me):
Politics - Remember, the #1 job of any politician is to get re-elected.
Data - Ontario has 5 of Canada's biggest cities (Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, and Hamilton) with a combined population (city proper, not metropolitan) of 5,740,000 (14% of a total Canadian population of 40 million.
Data WAG based on Toronto (3,354 miles) - 25% of the roads would be converted to bike lanes yielding 838.5. Round up to 1000 just to make the math simpler. Times five is 5,000 miles total.
Data WAG - For protected bike lanes, the cost is $133,000 (USD) to $536,000 (USD) / mile. Let's use $300K to keep the math simpler.
CapEx - Total cost: 5,000 miles X $300,000 (USD) = $1,500,000,000. That's $261 per person in those cities to do this capital expense.
Data WAG - Assume a high estimate of 10% of that population, 57,400 either are or would be cyclists across each city (11,480). That a cost of $130,000 spent per cyclist.
Politics - The Premier has the Power to order these Cities (which are "mere creatures of a Province per the Canadian Constitution) in the Province to do what you want - convert roads to have bike lanes. It would like cause political chaos with LOTS of pushback as he was elected to REMOVE bike lanes (like it or not).
Result - IF he were to do that, you might get some of your bike lanes and the result you wanted in one of your other posts - replacing Doug Ford.
Reality Check - So NOW for the question - is this the value proposition that voters would accept to 1) put in the bike lanes, and 2) vote Doug Ford out for spending all that money for so few privileged people?
Data point AND Politics - Not factored in: what is the percentage of those cities' population that care about emissions no matter the personal cost to themselves vs those that say "er, no"? And how would that play in the political ramifications as well?
Politics - see above, Job #1. Do you think Ford is that stupid to get himself unelected over this given the cost / politics?
This is why I and others keep stressing "What's the COST of the ideas presented here? (secondarily, the palatability thereof to the entire population)". Then add in the Political ramifications of such costs. The problem is that hardly anyone here doesn't even bother to do this simple "back of an envelope" analysis.
And it is a simple analysis as I have other more pressing things to do but the next step would be to analyze the amount / cost / average MPG / emissions to an estimated "first order" lowering of each of those data points with a resultant dollar savings.
E-Bike battery fires not included.
And as a former Project Manager, the numbers here are most likely BELOW actuals when and if the project is done. I'd double it at the least.
Note, too, that I didn't bother to put in a timeline - that would be VERY stupid of me to even do a really horrible WAG.
"If we want economic independence from the USA, we should build more bike lanes"
So, when it is all said and done, is the premise above, that putting in bike lanes be sufficient to REALLY move the needle towards economic independence from the USA, true or not? I think not.
However, I'll leave the second part of the problem domain, as noted above, as an exercise for the readers to prove me wrong. I'm always willing to learn something new.
You need not have put so much work into this. In this case, the bike lanes are installed and are being removed, so I am simply trying to make a case for preserving them.
"I am simply trying to make a case for preserving them"
Yes, you have made that case in past posts. That's fine but as we have discussed, it is a political domain issue.
However, in the title of this post, "If we want economic independence from the USA, we should build more bike lanes, not rip them out."
You made making an 'economic independence' supposition. I thought it to be rather interesting as it banded both the political and funding domains. As I said, I merely made a "back of the envelope" analysis that only took a few minutes (really, just a few) to see if it would really pan out to be more than a sliver. Again, without doing the backend (which WOULD take a lot of time), I WAG that it would not.
But the topic then morphed into how important that the "Culture of a Place" is also important and plays a significant role in such a project.
See? Connected breadcrumbs that show that a given problem has lots of forks in it.
Another thought: the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo (which happened 1 month before I got my driver's license) was an externally enforced and restricting event. What you are desiring is an internally enforced one - far different and I would say that it "doesn't map" one to the other.
That's not to say that Canada can't do that with but with your Finance Minister Freeland, running to supplant Trudeau, talking about setting up a nuclear alliance with Britain and France to deter the US, who knows what's next?
Not quite as stupid as today's Zelensky's meeting with Trump and JD (Zelensky certainly couldn't read the room - and on live TV to boot) - maybe.
But for all the talk I see by Provinces advertising on our TV about Kumbaya and how valuable they are to us, I thought her position in comparison...strange.
I’m using your insights to guide where I live in the future putting most of my efforts into living in a walkable area that allows me to meet my needs without a car as much as possible.
I wish Canada luck in mapping an independent future. No one should depend in any way on entities that interact through threats which the USA under Trump has done. I wish you luck in moving on from politics to sustainability it’s hard to think of anything but politics in these difficult times.
Appreciate use of USA vs incorrect America, the latter of which I have never used nor heard much until recently. Popular Canadian media even saying America now. Aren’t the terms used part of media org policy?
Forgot 'Merica!!!! (heh!)