Many commenters on my recent post, We may soon have 70 million boomers too old to drive, too car-dependent to stop suggested that autonomous vehicles (AVs) or self-driving cars might be the answer. “Wouldn't it make sense (and intellectual honesty) to now start listing SDC ("Self Driving Cars) as both a reality and a remedy for old folks to keep THEIR autonomy and location-freedom even if they can't pass a driving test?”
This idea has been percolating for some time; Jane Gould wrote in her 2014 book “Aging in Suburbia” that autonomous vehicles would mean freedom for older people, who would be "able to traverse the vast, spread distances of the suburbs in a way that has never been economical or practical for public transportation." Joseph Coughlin of the MIT AgeLab and author of "The Longevity Economy," thought they would be a big deal too, telling the New York Times in 2017: "The aging of the population converging with autonomous vehicles might close the coming mobility gap for an aging society."
Back then, I was skeptical that AVs could ever reach Level 5 autonomous driving capabilities, but, according to the Driverless Digest, Waymo now handles over 450,000 trips per week across 6 major cities. A recent study, Applications of Self-Driving Vehicles in an Aging Population, claims:
“The advent of self-driving vehicles opens vast possibilities with practical and far-reaching applications for our aging population. Advancing technologies in transportation may help to overcome transportation barriers for less mobile individuals, transcend social and geographical isolation, and improve resource and medical access.”
However, there are issues. Back in 2000, when AVs were science fiction and older adults were still called “seniors,” the Beverly Foundation came up with The 5A’s of Senior-Friendly Transportation: Availability, Acceptability, Accessibility, Adaptability and Affordability. The categories can be applied to AVs:
Availability:
Will AVs or Robotaxis be available when they are needed? They may not need an expensive driver, but the cars are not cheap. In denser cities like San Francisco, there may be a large enough user base to keep the AVs running most of the time, but will it play in Peoria or other smaller centres, where everyone who can drive does, and the AVs would be servicing a very small market?
Acceptability:
According to the AAA, surveys show that 66% of Americans are nervous about getting in robotaxis. “Different demographics have varying opinions. Millennial and Generation X drivers are more likely to say they would ride in one than Baby Boomer drivers, but even among younger drivers, most say they wouldn’t ride in a Robotaxi.” But faced with the mobility gap and the lack of alternatives, they might well change their minds.
According to AARP, “Using these emerging transportation technologies requires smartphone and internet access, and access to making online payments, all of which present challenges for many older adults who may lack even a base level of tech fluency and comfort.” But I suspect that doesn’t apply to the aging boomer cohort, which is more glued to their phones than their kids.
Accessibility:
Many older adults have given up driving due to physical or cognitive problems. Currently, most robotaxis are converted cars that AARP notes “can be difficult to enter and exit, and they may not easily accommodate the walking aids or wheelchairs that are used by approximately a quarter of all older adults.” This is not an insurmountable problem; in Japan, there are boxy AVs designed for easy entry. It’s a design problem.
Cognitive issues are more serious; as AARP notes, “many older adults need door-to-door or hand-to-hand service due to challenges such as: identifying the vehicle when it arrives; stowing and retrieving bags or mobility aids; finding the correct door at complex locations such as a hospital or shopping centers; and physically navigating busy streets and sidewalks.” Can a robotaxi do that?
Adaptability:
According to the Beverly Foundation, adaptability calls for “door-through-door service.” Spouse Kelly’s mom didn’t just need a ride; she needed help with multiple stops, door-to-door rather than curb-to-curb services, and assistance unloading the groceries. The adaptability gap isn’t about the technology; it is about the difference between transportation and care.
Affordability:
Doing the math on numbers from The Next Big Future, Waymo’s 15 million rides cost passengers about $18 and cost Waymo about $330. Of course, costs will drop dramatically with experience and mass production, but in what timeframe? AARP notes that the mobility companies are focusing on a wealthy urban audience.
“ Those who have more limitations (physical, cognitive, multiple disabilities, financial, technology access/understanding) or certain specific needs (transportation that accommodates mobility aids, low-income, rural location) often do not fit into current new mobility business models.”
AARP concludes: “The promise that AVs will radically improve mobility for older adults is not a given.”
Transportation consultant Jarrett Walker often says, “When we are talking about space, we are talking about geometry, not engineering, and technology never changes geometry.” With millions of older adults spread across the vast suburbs and exurbs of the USA and Canada, we have a huge geometric problem that I do not believe will be solved by autonomous vehicle technology, unless they can be produced by the millions and cost in the thousands. It’s not likely to happen in my lifetime.
I still think AVs are a over-complicated attempt to solve a small part of a much bigger problem. Here's what I want to say here though -
Over the last few months my mother in law has when through a bunch of medical problems. A small silver lining is that this allow for a change in where she's is living without the epic throw down that would have been necessary to get her to move from the rural family home. A good 25 minute drive from anything.
We found a place in town that, honestly, I think we need to start building more of everywhere. I can best describe it as a residency hotel with help. You rent the room like an apartment and then pay additional for the level of care you need. Three meals a day in the common room which is quite nice, there are those strings of Edison bulbs (LED) over the eating area like a nice outdoor cafe. Residents are all older but with various levels of ability. There's van available to run people to appointments. It's a short walk from the an ice cream shop and the local brewery But here's the part I most want to relay here -
...she's happy. Really happy, more than we thought she be, more than she would have imaged. She's sits at the sassy gals table at meals. Before this the highlight of her life was a Quilting Club that met once a week (unfortunately they meet in a basement, 14 steps, not happening) Now she's making new friends and sees them everyday. The quilting gals still stop by from time to time.
Image mixing this model with some younger families too, I'm not kidding. You get meal plan, some nights you cook, on the busy days you drag the kids down to the commons for the meal. I been thinking that I wouldn't mind living like this.
Hopefully this makes my view of the situation clear.
Many in the UK have addressed the age transportation gap by asking a local cab company for a discount deal on off peak journeys, backed by a minimum monthly subscription. You can get astonishingly cheap travel this way, with a nice driver to help at each end.