We're facing a demographic time bomb

From the archives: We've got about five years to help communities prepare. Will we? ​

In my previous post, I noted that “aging is the real population bomb, with 20% of the US population over 65 by 2030.” While researching the post, I stumbled on a trove of old posts I had written in 2019 for the Mother Nature Network in my continuing series there on demographics and addressing the vast numbers of aging baby boomers. The majority of boomers are not yet seriously old, but they will be sooner than they think. I am republishing the series here; I have updated the years, i.e. the subhead used to say We've got about a decade five years to help communities prepare. Will we? ​

Shopping in Helsinki, Finland, where they always seem to be ahead of the curve — even on negative things like an aging population. (Photo: Miguel Virkkunen Carvalho/CC 2.0, Flickr)

Outside of Japan, Finland has a population that's aging faster than any industrialized country, thanks to a baby boom that started a little bit earlier, after the Winter War with Russia that ended in 1940. It's a portent of things to come for other European and North American countries, as one European official notes in the Financial Times, which is behind a paywall:

"If I want to get really depressed, I think about what we're not talking about at all — the ticking demographic time-bomb."

Finland is ahead of the game and has been trying to develop new forms of housing and care but "In European terms we have been preparing early but only a little has been done," says Marja Vaarama, a professor of social work at the University of Eastern Finland.

Beyond the pure politics and economics, experts in Finland say the debate on ageing needs to be rethought. Prof Vaarama says that it is wrong to classify all people aged over 65 as "old". She argues true old age starts at 80-85. Before that, people could still be working and be consumers in the new so-called "silver economy". "Society doesn't yet understand what longevity is. We should look at how we can benefit from this population," she adds.

This is a critical insight. The North American baby boomers are, for the most part, not feeling very old yet, and they aren't selling their houses and moving to retirement communities that show all these photos of happy boomers drinking wine on the beach. In fact, according to Aging With Freedom,

Yes, there's a big demographic wave of baby boomers hitting retirement. The front of that wave born right after WWII is turning 70. But they are not behaving like their parents. They often aren't even retired at 70. Many don't even plan a hard stop to careers. They expect to retire later and live longer. They have a strong preference to age-in-place.

Aging boomers are also worried about money. Retirement communities are expensive; aging in place, in one's home, is "more familiar, less expensive, and more flexible."

This all works wonderfully — until it doesn't. That's the demographic time bomb, when the leading edge of the baby boomers hit 80, starting about five years from now. That's what we have to get ready for, and not by building isolated senior communities. Instead, we have to make our communities work for everyone, of all ages. Rachel Quenau of Strong Towns suggests three steps:

1. Make cities safe and easy to get around without a car.

A senior cyclist in Sweden demonstrates one of the easiest solutions to the thorny transportation issue: One solution for a growing population of older people to become less reliant on cars, both for health and for opportunity. (Photo: Lloyd Alter)

Quenau calls for slowing down cars, but we also need serious implementation of Vision Zero, better walking infrastructure and maintenance. We need much wider sidewalks and separate, wider separate lanes for bikes and the new age of electric mobility. I like the way my old friend Mark sums it up in the tweet above.

2. Create housing options that work for people of all ages and abilities.

New houses can and should exist next to old apartments. (Photo: Lloyd Alter)

Most cities in North America have a zoning monoculture, pretty much prohibiting anything but single-family dwellings, setting minimum house sizes, banning backyard housing and tiny homes. But if people are going to be able to stay in their neighbourhoods, we'll need a variety of housing types.

3. Build communities that give people purpose and meaning.

Older people learning how to edit Wikipedia. (Photo: Wikipedia)

This is really the natural result of 1 and 2; instead of being trapped in the house in front of the TV, people can get out, go to a library or a club, or walk to a store. As Quenau concludes, "By building our cities at a walkable, human scale, with different housing options and stores, gathering places and resources nearby, we create a foundation for people from ages 1-100 to live happy, healthy lives now and in the future."

And to accomplish this before the demographic time bomb goes off, we have to start right now.

UPDATE: I have turned off comments because they are turning into comments everywhere when people talk about American politics.