Many older drivers don't see the road ahead
A survey shows that most have not thought about what will happen when they can't drive anymore.
Yesterday, I had to turn off the comments on a post I wrote last year about an AARP survey that found most Americans believed they would be able to drive to their single-family homes in the suburbs forever. It apparently was picked up somewhere, and my new readers don’t like my conclusion:
“We have 75 million North American baby boomers, almost all of whom will not be able to drive at some point. We need accessible housing, and walkable communities with good sidewalks, corner stores, medical facilities and coffee shops within a reasonable distance. We need good, safe, accessible transit for when we have to go further. We all must prepare for a non-driving future. And as the AARP study shows, almost nobody is.”
Another survey confirms that boomers are clueless
AARP has released the results of its survey “2024 Home & Community Preferences Among Adults 18 and Older” and of course, it is illustrated with what looks like an AI version of an idyllic suburban community of culs-de-sac and single detached houses with three-car garages. Because that is apparently what everyone wants.
It has been a controversial post since I wrote it, likely because of the admittedly provocative title. The top commenter, Lisa, noted, “Given that I don’t care about a walkable community or walkable nearby stores now, while I am working, why would you think I would suddenly want them when I stop driving? I shop online, and I don’t frequent coffee shops.” She concludes: “I am prepared just fine. The issue appears to be that you disagree with those preferences, not a lack of information or planning.”
OK, that’s fair. But I stand by my argument that most people have not prepared for or even considered what will happen when they have to hang up the keys. A recent study The Road Ahead: Driving Behaviors, Confidence, and Planning Among Adults Age 65+, from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) backs me up:
Among drivers age 65 and older (defined as those who reported driving at all in the past six months), 81% said they were very confident in their current ability to drive safely, 18% were somewhat confident, and 1% were not very confident.
94% of drivers were very or somewhat confident that they would still be driving in five years.
“Fewer drivers age 65 and older (43%) said they were very confident in their ability to drive safely over the next five years, while 51% were somewhat confident and 5% not very confident.”
This is what I have been worrying about: the majority living on their suburban cul-de-sac who think they can just keep doing what they are doing now. Or as another commenter noted: “Where I live, there isn't public transport, there isn't an Uber, and that's by design. The hospital is a 10 min drive, and everything I need is within 5 miles, or there is Amazon. The big city is dirty, filthy, and full of degenerate criminals. You can keep it.”
The survey numbers are better than I imagined, but still abysmal; only slightly more than half are completely clueless.
When the poll asked drivers age 65 and older how much thought they have given to what they will do for transportation if they are no longer able to drive safely, 53% said they thought about it very little or not at all, 39% said some, and 8% had thought about it a lot.
Among drivers age 65 and older, 46% said they have a plan in place if they are no longer able to drive (e.g., have family or friends drive them, or use ridesharing services), while 54% do not have a plan. Women and people age 75 and older were more likely to have a plan in place than men and people age 65-74, respectively.
The survey authors discuss the implications:
“Research shows that most people will eventually need to reduce or stop driving. Losing the ability to drive can be a significant and potentially life-changing event, affecting one’s daily tasks, social activities, and sense of independence. It is important for the people in older adults’ lives to be aware of this reality and support them as they navigate changes in driving ability.”
The problem, as I have noted before, is the demographic time bomb: we have a lot of aging baby boomers and not a lot of time. Study authors Renée St. Louis and David W. Eby note in the press release:
“The freedom to drive where you want, when you want, is a critical part of independent living for older adults, and when it’s diminished for any reason, it can have profound effects. With most of the Baby Boom generation now in their mid-60s and above, we have millions of older drivers who will need guidance and alternatives as their health begins to affect their ability to drive safely.”
Below my writing here, Substack automatically lists my top ten most popular posts, and they are almost all about the demographic time bomb of aging baby boomers; it is clearly a subject people are interested in. Some of them have hundreds of comments, many complaining about me wanting to push old people into communist-inspired 15-minute cities, or that I am ageist and should actually go meet an old person, or that I should move to Canada, where the government kills old people. Many object to my calling them clueless. But as the survey shows, I am not making this up.
The demographics are unrelenting. 73% of Americans live in car-centric suburbs and exurbs. When millions of them can no longer drive, everyone has a problem.
My dad and uncles had to take away my grandfathers keys at 84. My siblings had to take away my father's keys when he reached 90, though he had by then reduced the distance he would go. I can see losing my ability to drive in that vicinity, but perhaps I will not recognize my own decline. It is important to let family members know that you give them permission to tell you when to give up driving, or perhaps even riding an electric bike. Decline is inevitable, yet decline also leads to a failure to recognize that it is happening. Witness the present and immediate past American Presidents. Perhaps we should not give the keys to government to people who cannot pass a driving test!
I’m old gen-x, so technically not part of your time bomb. But I think about this a lot, particularly after having to take my mother’s car keys away. Our plan is to move back to a walkable city after years in suburban and rural environments. Cities are assisted living. And they are not full of degenerate criminals.